elcome to our NBA ATS Countdown Issue 1 for the 2010-11 NBA Season. The Countdown takes a look at the league’s top five teams against the spread. As we do in most issues we not only look at ATS situations for the NBA’s top five ATS teams we also provide a key angle for each team. Here are the league’s top five take a look…
Atlanta leads the way with a 26-13 ATS mark on the season for 66.7 percent winners overall. They have used the home court advantage to grab the lead posting a record of 14-6 ATS for 70 percent winners on their home floor which is best in the NBA. The Hawks rank fourth in the league on the road with a 12-7 ATS record for 63.2 percent. Look for the Hawks after suffering a straight up loss in their last game as they are 10-3 ATS for 76.9 percent winners in their next outing. Key Angle: Atlanta is 9-2 ATS (81.8 percent) versus Atlantic Division opponents.
Charlotte checks in at second place with an overall record of 24-14 ATS for 63.2 percent winners on the year. Charlotte has been strong on their home floor with a record of 13-7 ATS for 65 percent winners. The Bobcats weakness is like that of other teams although they do have a winning record on the road with an 11-7 ATS mark for 61.1 percent winners which are good enough for fifth place on the highway. The Bobcats believe success breeds success at least where the spread is concerned because they are 13-5 ATS for 72.2 percent winners coming in off a straight up win in their last game. Key Angle: Charlotte is 8-2 ATS when playing with no rest.
Oklahoma City comes in ranked number three in the league with a record of 24-16 ATS for 60 percent winners overall. The Thunder are the reverse of the normal home/road dichotomy because they are nothing special at home going 11-10 ATS for 52.4 percent which ranks 16th in the league but an amazing 13-6 ATS for 68.4 percent winners on the road. Their strong performance on the highway is what propelled them into the top five overall. Watch for the Thunder coming off a straight up loss because they have posted a record of 15-3 ATS for 83.3 percent winners in this situation. Key Angle: Oklahoma City is 14-2 ATS when coming off an against the spread loss in their last game which is good for 87.5 percent winners.
Utah holds down the fourth position in our countdown with a record of 23-16 ATS for 59 percent winners on the 2010 season. Utah has used a strong home court to gain entry into our NBA ATS Countdown with a record of 14-7-1 ATS for 66.7 percent winners in Salt Lake City. The road has not been as kind to the Jazz with a 9-9-1 ATS record on the highway this season which is good for 16th in the NBA on the road. We want to play the Over when Utah is installed as an underdog off a game in which they shot at least 50 percent from the field; they are 25-7 over in their next game. Key Angle: Play On the Utah Jazz at home not a favorite of more than 20 points with a total less than 212 off a home game where they allowed 50 or more percent from the field. The Jazz are 13-1 ATS in this situation.
Memphis holds the final position in our countdown with the number 5 spot and a record of 22-17 ATS for 56.4 percent winners this season. The Grizzlies used a 12-7 ATS mark at home for 63.2 percent winners which helped them hold on to the last slot in our countdown. Memphis is a .500 ATS team on the highway posting a record of 10-10 ATS for 50 percent and the number 14 spot in the league. Their top ATS angle is to play on them when coming off a straight up win in their last game as they are 15-5 ATS for 75 percent winners in their next contest. Look for them to go over the posted total when coming off an ATS win in their last game with a 15-6 over record their last 21 in that situation. Key Angle: Memphis is 12-4-1 over when installed as a road underdog their last 17 in that situation.
NBA ATS Countdown Angle:
In each issue of our NBA ATS Countdown we will provide a system or angle to be on the lookout for in the future. Here is this issue’s NBA Angle: Play ON the Orlando Magic off a road loss in which Dwight Howard had a double-dozen which means he had at least twelve points and twelve rebounds. The Magic are an outstanding 28-0-2 ATS in this situation.
This concludes the first issue of our 2010-11 NBA ATS Countdown we hope you find this information useful and we will see you back here in two weeks with our next report. Please remember to be safe and as always good luck.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
So you wanna be a handicapper?
So you wanna be a handicapper? You think you have what it takes to go through the grind and beat the almighty 52.38%? Then read on!
This article isn't going to talk a lot about what a professional sports handicapper has to endure, not so much about how to become one, but we'll cover that a bit as well.
For starters, you will need to make yourself a somewhat attractive trustworthy looking website. Advertise your true records on the site. Nobody believes false claims of 70-90% winners. Don't bother using the word lock either, because today's internet sports bettor has become more astute and knows there is no such thing. Lastly, don't bother with cheap lines like "I've got inside information." Be legit as the cream always rises to the top. If you do things right in the first place, it will all come back to reward you in the end.
Next, you will need to establish your worth as a handicapper. If you were to go tell any major service or portal on the web that you hit 60% in all sports, your probably going to get ignored. We've all heard it before and we'll hear it again, too many times in fact.
Your best bet in getting started is to fork out the loot to get monitored at one of the web's better sports monitors. This means entering your picks daily at sites such as bigguy.com, Trackpicks.com, Sportsmonitor.com, FreeSportsMonitor.com or NevadaSportsMonitor.com. You are going to need to prove yourself before anybody believes your claims. That's just the way it is.
After you've spent time proving yourself and assuming that you have a nice website, contact some major sports handicapping information portals on the web and ask them if you can have a page to give away free picks on a daily basis. This will give you some cheap exposure. In exchange, their going to probably ask you to put their banner or link on their homepage. Keep in mind that their established and your not, so this is a very fair deal for you even if your not on their homepage.
Assuming you've gotten some exposure from the sports monitors and portals, offer to give out your picks for a free week. This is a great hook to get guys in the door. Keep their email addresses in a file and market to them from time to time. Don't expect them all to buy from you, even if your hot. Something we haven't gotten to yet is that this is a very competitive market and it's not easy to make a buck.
Provide analysis with your picks. Some say it doesn't matter as long as your producing winners but by providing analysis with your selections, it proves that your legit and did your homework. Oh, and speaking of homework? Expect to handicap 12 hours a day or more if you want to be a long term winner. It's surely a marathon, not a sprint and it's one hell of a grind.
Monday, January 11, 2010
The Real Value is in Specializing
Do you ever wonder when you're in a Las Vegas sports book why the limits are so low on certain bets while the house will let you bet anything you want on others? Why are NFL side action wager limits so much higher than totals? Now about NBA side selection limits as opposed to WNBA totals? How about MLB sides as opposed to Tennis wagers? It all comes down to how comfortable the sports book manager is about the numbers he sets. With everyone and their brother knowing all about each NFL team the book is more than willing to let you lay whatever you like on a side play knowing the house has a well informed opinion. But ask the man on the street about the Arena Football League and he likely couldn't tell you the number of teams in the league.
Most professional sports bettors that I know here in Las Vegas specialize in a certain type or sport of preference. There are guys who do nothing but bet NFL totals and when they have an opinion I listen. There are others who make their money by betting the Arena Football League and if they recommend a play I'm on it. Still others specialize in NBA quarter bets and make a living doing so. While the limits are much lower the edge is far greater. That's why the books have lower limits on these type of bets, because they know they can be beaten. In fact, many books in town won't take certain action because they know they will only get wise guy money. They would much rather have action on NFL sides where the wise guy money is balanced with general public perception.
So in order to maximize profit you should concentrate on minor sports or segments of the major sports that have an edge. Next time you're in a Las Vegas casino go up and ask about the wagering limits for each segment of the betting board, that will tell you what you should be spending your time handicapping.
Most professional sports bettors that I know here in Las Vegas specialize in a certain type or sport of preference. There are guys who do nothing but bet NFL totals and when they have an opinion I listen. There are others who make their money by betting the Arena Football League and if they recommend a play I'm on it. Still others specialize in NBA quarter bets and make a living doing so. While the limits are much lower the edge is far greater. That's why the books have lower limits on these type of bets, because they know they can be beaten. In fact, many books in town won't take certain action because they know they will only get wise guy money. They would much rather have action on NFL sides where the wise guy money is balanced with general public perception.
So in order to maximize profit you should concentrate on minor sports or segments of the major sports that have an edge. Next time you're in a Las Vegas casino go up and ask about the wagering limits for each segment of the betting board, that will tell you what you should be spending your time handicapping.
How to bet college basketball
Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madness.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madness.
NCAA Hoops – Too Much To Handle?
With College hoops kicking off, it’s time to once again examine what goes into handicapping this sometimes overwhelming sport.College basketball is considered by many to be one of the toughest sports to handicap while at the same time, it is also considered to be one of the most profitable.
With 225 Division I lined teams, there are usually in upwards of 80-90 games to decipher on any given Saturday during the season. The average sports bettor cannot possibly handicap all of these games especially when the lines aren’t released until the prior afternoon.
The volume of possible action is what makes churning out consistent profits so difficult to some. However, with that many possibilities on the board, some of those lines are very soft since the linesmakers also find it difficult to throw good numbers on all of those games. Finding those teams with hidden value is what you want to strive for and I will give you a few tips on how to do just that.
Stats, Stats, Stats
In my opinion, the most important component of handicapping is looking at the statistical numbers. A lot of cappers use stats as a secondary tool and there is absolutely nothing wrong with it if that is how they are able to pick more winners. I do use situational handicapping in certain areas but not as much in college sports as I do in professional sports. I feel stats are very important when handicapping college hoops because they are real and genuine even though parity isn’t very prevalent.
These college kids go out and play hard for their team every game, not just for themselves because they are in a contract year or looking for special bonuses. When looking at the stats, you have to make sure you are looking at the right stats and also looking at them correctly. Simply looking at points scored for and against can be very misleading at times.
For example, Texas A&M led the country in scoring margin at one point last season at +34.8 ppg. A novice might see that and say that the Aggies are playing great basketball right now but not notice that they have played the weakest schedule in the country that includes wins against NAIA Texas of the Permian Basin and Division III Trinity. If stats such as this are being used in your analysis, either factor in schedule strength or use only comparable Division I numbers.
One stat that can be used no matter who the competition is free throw shooting. The basket is 15 feet away no matter who the opponent is. The numbers might be slightly skewed based on pressure situations for some teams and not others but for the most part, they are a good indicator.
Assist to turnover ratio is another one of most important stats to look at. The average A/TO ratio is around 0.950 in college basketball so anything above 1.20 is what I consider outstanding. Early in the season, you will see a lot of inflated numbers due to the soft schedules a lot of teams play. Once the conference season starts, these numbers will decline based on the more difficult schedules.
Keying in on the correct stats and looking at them the right way can give you some great additional insight.
Throw out the Trash
This time of the year with most teams still playing their non-conference schedules, there are a lot of real garbage games on the board. I define garbage games as those with favorites of 20 points or more. Even when conference season begins, these high lined games will still be around.
For a team to be favored by this many points means one of two things. The chalk is a superior team and should be able to name the score or the underdog is so bad that they have no business even hanging around in this contest. Laying 20 or more points can give the average bettor some high level stress as they try to avoid the dreaded backdoor cover. Grabbing 20 or more points is just as gut wrenching as you are hoping your longshot can stay within the number. It’s simply too much to handle since luck comes into play in a number of these outcomes.
Last season, there were lines of 20 or more points in 68 games that involved the major conference teams. The favorite covered the number 36 times while the dog cashed 32 times, making it pretty much a wash. On occasion, an edge can be found in these games whether its injury, a look ahead situation or a hangover but they are few and far between and my advice is to just not even bother wasting your valuable time. There are better numbers out there for you to find.
Two years ago, Duke was favored by 20 or more points eleven times, the most out of any team in the country. They went 5-6 ATS in those games and the kicker is that in seven of them, the final margin was within 4.5 points of the closing line. Move along please…
Injury Reports
Take a look at injury reports each and every day. As a hypothetical example, ESPN will give you information on Georgia Tech’s leading scorer being out for their next game but they won’t tell you that the leading scorer for Rider is out as well. While injury reports list actual players injuries, they also list eligibility information as well.
Early in the year is especially important since it is final exam time for the first semester. A number of players have been sitting out through their team’s first few games in order to get their academics in order. Players may also be sitting out the first semester because of NCAA regulations with transfers. These reports will usually tell you when a player will become eligible. Late December is the most common time that players return to action after sitting out the fall semester so keep an eye on those reports for the next couple weeks. Again, you will hear from the media about the big name schools but it’s the smaller schools that you want to keep a keen eye on. Finding players involved in games that are going to be out or just coming back are the ones you can concentrate on and handicap more in depth. You may think you have a strong play going only to find out that a key player will not be in action. If that’s the case, out the window it goes.
Power Ratings
There are numerous sources available where you can get a set of power ratings. Better yet, compile your own set that you can tweak and play with until you have come up with a solid bunch of rankings. Comparing your numbers against the lines can give you some very good parameters to use to try and filter out some of the games you are looking to handicap.
If your ratings make Illinois a 16-point favorite over Oregon and the line is –17, you might want to disregard that game and move on. Compiling your own set of power ratings will take some time to find the greatest accuracy but it will pay off in the long run. Setting up your numbers can be as easy as using different power ratings from other places or they can be more complex incorporating stats, schedules and other useful tools.
For example, my numbers employ five sets of national ratings along with stats such as shooting percentages, rebounding margins and assist/turnover ratios. I also incorporate strength of schedule numbers, which can be a valuable tool that is often overlooked. Ideally, if there is a Saturday card with 80 lined games, you want to knock that down by about 75% to get down to 20 games. This will give you a lot of better options and you can free up valuable time to handicap those games more in depth to come up with some strong winners.
With 225 Division I lined teams, there are usually in upwards of 80-90 games to decipher on any given Saturday during the season. The average sports bettor cannot possibly handicap all of these games especially when the lines aren’t released until the prior afternoon.
The volume of possible action is what makes churning out consistent profits so difficult to some. However, with that many possibilities on the board, some of those lines are very soft since the linesmakers also find it difficult to throw good numbers on all of those games. Finding those teams with hidden value is what you want to strive for and I will give you a few tips on how to do just that.
Stats, Stats, Stats
In my opinion, the most important component of handicapping is looking at the statistical numbers. A lot of cappers use stats as a secondary tool and there is absolutely nothing wrong with it if that is how they are able to pick more winners. I do use situational handicapping in certain areas but not as much in college sports as I do in professional sports. I feel stats are very important when handicapping college hoops because they are real and genuine even though parity isn’t very prevalent.
These college kids go out and play hard for their team every game, not just for themselves because they are in a contract year or looking for special bonuses. When looking at the stats, you have to make sure you are looking at the right stats and also looking at them correctly. Simply looking at points scored for and against can be very misleading at times.
For example, Texas A&M led the country in scoring margin at one point last season at +34.8 ppg. A novice might see that and say that the Aggies are playing great basketball right now but not notice that they have played the weakest schedule in the country that includes wins against NAIA Texas of the Permian Basin and Division III Trinity. If stats such as this are being used in your analysis, either factor in schedule strength or use only comparable Division I numbers.
One stat that can be used no matter who the competition is free throw shooting. The basket is 15 feet away no matter who the opponent is. The numbers might be slightly skewed based on pressure situations for some teams and not others but for the most part, they are a good indicator.
Assist to turnover ratio is another one of most important stats to look at. The average A/TO ratio is around 0.950 in college basketball so anything above 1.20 is what I consider outstanding. Early in the season, you will see a lot of inflated numbers due to the soft schedules a lot of teams play. Once the conference season starts, these numbers will decline based on the more difficult schedules.
Keying in on the correct stats and looking at them the right way can give you some great additional insight.
Throw out the Trash
This time of the year with most teams still playing their non-conference schedules, there are a lot of real garbage games on the board. I define garbage games as those with favorites of 20 points or more. Even when conference season begins, these high lined games will still be around.
For a team to be favored by this many points means one of two things. The chalk is a superior team and should be able to name the score or the underdog is so bad that they have no business even hanging around in this contest. Laying 20 or more points can give the average bettor some high level stress as they try to avoid the dreaded backdoor cover. Grabbing 20 or more points is just as gut wrenching as you are hoping your longshot can stay within the number. It’s simply too much to handle since luck comes into play in a number of these outcomes.
Last season, there were lines of 20 or more points in 68 games that involved the major conference teams. The favorite covered the number 36 times while the dog cashed 32 times, making it pretty much a wash. On occasion, an edge can be found in these games whether its injury, a look ahead situation or a hangover but they are few and far between and my advice is to just not even bother wasting your valuable time. There are better numbers out there for you to find.
Two years ago, Duke was favored by 20 or more points eleven times, the most out of any team in the country. They went 5-6 ATS in those games and the kicker is that in seven of them, the final margin was within 4.5 points of the closing line. Move along please…
Injury Reports
Take a look at injury reports each and every day. As a hypothetical example, ESPN will give you information on Georgia Tech’s leading scorer being out for their next game but they won’t tell you that the leading scorer for Rider is out as well. While injury reports list actual players injuries, they also list eligibility information as well.
Early in the year is especially important since it is final exam time for the first semester. A number of players have been sitting out through their team’s first few games in order to get their academics in order. Players may also be sitting out the first semester because of NCAA regulations with transfers. These reports will usually tell you when a player will become eligible. Late December is the most common time that players return to action after sitting out the fall semester so keep an eye on those reports for the next couple weeks. Again, you will hear from the media about the big name schools but it’s the smaller schools that you want to keep a keen eye on. Finding players involved in games that are going to be out or just coming back are the ones you can concentrate on and handicap more in depth. You may think you have a strong play going only to find out that a key player will not be in action. If that’s the case, out the window it goes.
Power Ratings
There are numerous sources available where you can get a set of power ratings. Better yet, compile your own set that you can tweak and play with until you have come up with a solid bunch of rankings. Comparing your numbers against the lines can give you some very good parameters to use to try and filter out some of the games you are looking to handicap.
If your ratings make Illinois a 16-point favorite over Oregon and the line is –17, you might want to disregard that game and move on. Compiling your own set of power ratings will take some time to find the greatest accuracy but it will pay off in the long run. Setting up your numbers can be as easy as using different power ratings from other places or they can be more complex incorporating stats, schedules and other useful tools.
For example, my numbers employ five sets of national ratings along with stats such as shooting percentages, rebounding margins and assist/turnover ratios. I also incorporate strength of schedule numbers, which can be a valuable tool that is often overlooked. Ideally, if there is a Saturday card with 80 lined games, you want to knock that down by about 75% to get down to 20 games. This will give you a lot of better options and you can free up valuable time to handicap those games more in depth to come up with some strong winners.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
How to bet college basketball
I dug through some of his old material and came up with several rules to follow while betting college basketball. Keep these in mind when betting the green and you’ll see a return on your investment in college basketball.
Of no-names and schedules
Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madnes
Of no-names and schedules
Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.
This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.
And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog.
This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule.
The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points.
The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines.
Conference play
This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups.
Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better.
Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents.
Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game?
This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place.
Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes.
Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action.
Tourney tips
Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play.
In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out.
Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home.
Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits.
Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge.
Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up.
History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madnes
Friday, January 8, 2010
Gaming Terms
ACTION
A bet
ATS
Against the spread
B.R.
Bankroll
BAD BEAT
Tough loss
BEARD
Messenger bettor
BEEF
Dispute
BUCK
$100
CHALK
Favorite
CHALK EATER
Favorite bettor
CHURN
The effect of betting and rebetting money
CIRCLE GAME
Game where action is limited due to uncertainties about weather, injuries, etc.
COVER
Win by more than the pointspread
DEGENERATE
Compulsive gambler
DIME
$1,000
DOLLAR
$100
EARN
Practical hold percentage
EDGE
Advantage
EXOTIC BET
Action other than a straight bet or parlay.
EXPOSURE
The amount of money the house actually stands to lose on a game or a race.
EXTENSION
The amount of money the house theoretically will risk losing on a game or a race.
FIGURE
Amount owed by or to a bookmaker.
FIRING
Betting a lot. A player who is "firing" is wagering large sums.
FLEA
An annoying human parasite who wants something for nothing; a $2 bettor who expects to be comped for his action.
FORM
What performance is to be expected according to how a team looks on paper.
GET DOWN
Make a bet
GOY
Game of the Year
GROSS WIN
Win before expenses
HANDICAPPER
One who studies sports and predicts outcomes.
HANDLE
Total amount of bets taken.
HEDGE
Bet the opposite of your original wager in order to reduce the amount of action you have on a game.
HOLD
The percentage the house wins.
HOOK
Half point in pointspreads, as in "lost by the hook."
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Edge the home team is expected to have as a result of familiarity with the playing area, favorable demographics and effect of travel on the visiting team.
HOOPS
Basketball
HOT TIP
Information the bookmaker is not yet privy to.
JUICE
Bookmaker's commission, most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers; vigorish.
LAY A PRICE
Bet a favorite, lay the points.
LAYOFF BET
A wager made by one bookmaker with another to help balance his action and reduce his risk on one side or one horse.
LIMIT
Maximum bet accepted by the house before the price will be changed.
LINE
The betting proposition on a game and/or payoff odds on the bet.
LN
Last Night
LONGSHOT
Large underdog
MIDDLE
To win both sides of a game. For example, if you bet the underdog +3 1/2 and the favorite - 2 1/2 and the favorite wins by 3, you've MIDDLED the book. The book has BEEN MIDDLED.
ML
Moneyline
NEUTRAL SITE
Arena, court or field where neither side has a home field advantage.
NICKEL
$500
OFF THE BOARD
Game where no bets are being accepted.
OUT
Bookmaker, usually refers to an illegal bookmaker.
OVERLAY
When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the bettor rather than the house.
PARLAY
A bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful.
PAST POST
To make a bet after an event has started.
PICK or PICK'EM
A game where neither team is favored.
PLAYER
Bettor, gambler.
PRACTICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE
The amount won by a bookmaker divided by the total amount booked.
PRESS
To bet a larger amount than usual.
PRICE
Line
PUPPY
Underdog
PUSH
Tie
ROUND ROBIN
A series of parlays. A three-team round robin consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays.
RUNDOWN
Line update
RUNNER
See Beard
SCALPER
One who attempts to profit from the differences in odds from book to book by betting both sides of the same game at different prices.
SCORE
To win a lot of money.
SCRATCH
Withdraw; cancel
SHARP
Wise guy
SHORTSTOP
A small bettor.
SIDE
To win one side and tie the other. For example, if you lay -2 1/2 and take 3 on the same game and the favorite wins by 3 you have SIDED the book. The book has been SIDED.
SQUARE
Unsophisticated gambler.
STEAM
Heavy action on one side.
STRAIGHT BET
A bet on just one team.
SUCKER BET
Bet with a large house edge.
TAKE A PRICE
Bet the underdog, take the points.
TAPPED OUT
Broke, busted, common result of pressing.
THEORETICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE
The edge the bookmaker would have IF the odds guaranteed him a constant commission regardless of the outcome.
TOKE
A tip or gratuity.
TOSS UP
Game where the line is close to pick-em.
TOUT SERVICE
A business that sells opinions on sporting events.
TRIPLE SHARP
The sharpest of the sharp. (Note: There is no such term as "Double Sharp").
TY
This Year
UNDERLAY
When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the house.
VALUE
An overlay
VIGORISH
WISE GUY
Established and successful sports bettor.
A bet
ATS
Against the spread
B.R.
Bankroll
BAD BEAT
Tough loss
BEARD
Messenger bettor
BEEF
Dispute
BUCK
$100
CHALK
Favorite
CHALK EATER
Favorite bettor
CHURN
The effect of betting and rebetting money
CIRCLE GAME
Game where action is limited due to uncertainties about weather, injuries, etc.
COVER
Win by more than the pointspread
DEGENERATE
Compulsive gambler
DIME
$1,000
DOLLAR
$100
EARN
Practical hold percentage
EDGE
Advantage
EXOTIC BET
Action other than a straight bet or parlay.
EXPOSURE
The amount of money the house actually stands to lose on a game or a race.
EXTENSION
The amount of money the house theoretically will risk losing on a game or a race.
FIGURE
Amount owed by or to a bookmaker.
FIRING
Betting a lot. A player who is "firing" is wagering large sums.
FLEA
An annoying human parasite who wants something for nothing; a $2 bettor who expects to be comped for his action.
FORM
What performance is to be expected according to how a team looks on paper.
GET DOWN
Make a bet
GOY
Game of the Year
GROSS WIN
Win before expenses
HANDICAPPER
One who studies sports and predicts outcomes.
HANDLE
Total amount of bets taken.
HEDGE
Bet the opposite of your original wager in order to reduce the amount of action you have on a game.
HOLD
The percentage the house wins.
HOOK
Half point in pointspreads, as in "lost by the hook."
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Edge the home team is expected to have as a result of familiarity with the playing area, favorable demographics and effect of travel on the visiting team.
HOOPS
Basketball
HOT TIP
Information the bookmaker is not yet privy to.
JUICE
Bookmaker's commission, most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers; vigorish.
LAY A PRICE
Bet a favorite, lay the points.
LAYOFF BET
A wager made by one bookmaker with another to help balance his action and reduce his risk on one side or one horse.
LIMIT
Maximum bet accepted by the house before the price will be changed.
LINE
The betting proposition on a game and/or payoff odds on the bet.
LN
Last Night
LONGSHOT
Large underdog
MIDDLE
To win both sides of a game. For example, if you bet the underdog +3 1/2 and the favorite - 2 1/2 and the favorite wins by 3, you've MIDDLED the book. The book has BEEN MIDDLED.
ML
Moneyline
NEUTRAL SITE
Arena, court or field where neither side has a home field advantage.
NICKEL
$500
OFF THE BOARD
Game where no bets are being accepted.
OUT
Bookmaker, usually refers to an illegal bookmaker.
OVERLAY
When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the bettor rather than the house.
PARLAY
A bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful.
PAST POST
To make a bet after an event has started.
PICK or PICK'EM
A game where neither team is favored.
PLAYER
Bettor, gambler.
PRACTICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE
The amount won by a bookmaker divided by the total amount booked.
PRESS
To bet a larger amount than usual.
PRICE
Line
PUPPY
Underdog
PUSH
Tie
ROUND ROBIN
A series of parlays. A three-team round robin consists of one three-team parlay and three two-team parlays.
RUNDOWN
Line update
RUNNER
See Beard
SCALPER
One who attempts to profit from the differences in odds from book to book by betting both sides of the same game at different prices.
SCORE
To win a lot of money.
SCRATCH
Withdraw; cancel
SHARP
Wise guy
SHORTSTOP
A small bettor.
SIDE
To win one side and tie the other. For example, if you lay -2 1/2 and take 3 on the same game and the favorite wins by 3 you have SIDED the book. The book has been SIDED.
SQUARE
Unsophisticated gambler.
STEAM
Heavy action on one side.
STRAIGHT BET
A bet on just one team.
SUCKER BET
Bet with a large house edge.
TAKE A PRICE
Bet the underdog, take the points.
TAPPED OUT
Broke, busted, common result of pressing.
THEORETICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE
The edge the bookmaker would have IF the odds guaranteed him a constant commission regardless of the outcome.
TOKE
A tip or gratuity.
TOSS UP
Game where the line is close to pick-em.
TOUT SERVICE
A business that sells opinions on sporting events.
TRIPLE SHARP
The sharpest of the sharp. (Note: There is no such term as "Double Sharp").
TY
This Year
UNDERLAY
When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the house.
VALUE
An overlay
VIGORISH
WISE GUY
Established and successful sports bettor.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
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