Units Won vs. Winning Percentage
While both “Units Won” and winning percentage can be telling when evaluating a group of plays, the sample size (number of plays) is also an important piece of information to look at. Some bettors use a strategy that is referred to as the Wal-Mart approach. With this strategy, bettors are hoping to grind out a profit through a higher quantity of plays, which allows bettors to spread around their risk in the sports betting marketplace.
In the table above, Pinnacle has a lower winning percentage than Phoenix, but it also has a higher profit for the season due to triggering more than double the number of plays. Spreading risk around allows bettors to ride the highs and lows of the season and still turn a profit. This approach requires bettors to be steadfast with their betting amounts. At Sports Insights, we recommend using 2% of your starting bankroll for each wager. Fluctuations in your standard bet will most likely cause more damage during the lows than it will help during the highs.
Spreading the risk around in the sports betting marketplace is similar to building a diverse portfolio in the stock market. It lessens the damage done by a rough stretch in the market. If a bettor is starting out with a $100 bankroll, and decides to use $25 wagers, there is a good chance the bankroll would be decimated by an early cold streak. However, if that same bettor makes $2 wagers, he can withstand any early cold streaks to remain in the market and realize positive gains. For example, Sports Insights betting strategies will produce 5-10 plays on an average day with an expected 54-55% win percentage. Instead of betting two games at $50 each, we suggest you bet 2% of your bankroll on 10 plays.
Moneyline Sports vs. Spread Sports
Many bettors like to stay away from moneyline-based sports, such as baseball and hockey, due to the extremes in winning percentages, but they can be very profitable. Betting on the underdog in moneyline sports will likely give you a losing record, but the payouts for winners will be so much higher that your profits will increase. Below is a section of a results page for MLB Smart Money plays. Notice that five out the six books have losing records for the triggered plays, but that all six have significant units won due to underdog payouts.
The other side of the coin is betting on favorites, which will give you a strong winning percentage, but can still produce a loss in money. Betting on teams like the Yankees or Red Wings will consistently put your odds in the -200s or higher. If you average odds of -200, you would need that team to win 67% of the time to break even. If your average odds go any higher, you’ll need to win 70% or more to not lose money.
For example, if you wager on the Yankees every game of the season (162 games) and they average -200 odds for the season, you would need them to win 109 games just to break even. To turn any substantial profit you would need them to break the single-season win record (116).
