The Ten Commandments of Prudent Sports Gambling

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The Ten Commandments of Prudent Sports Gambling

#1: Thou Shalt Use Sound Money Management
Perhaps the biggest mistake that I see in other players is a complete lack of Risk Management and a lack of discipline therein. This is the single most prevalent reason that I see why people blow up and get in big trouble gambling.

Let’s first go over how a player should assess their own situation when it comes to Risk Management, as it will determine the total amount that they are willing to lose (Bankroll), the number of plays they will make (Gross Action), their worst case win rate and their average bet size. If you compute these factors BEFORE you start playing, then you will not blow up, pure and simple. You will have a plan and will sleep better at night. You may still lose but it will be a manageable loss inside of your bankroll. If you don’t do this, things can get away from you very quickly, and before you know it, you have blown up, and Moose and Rocco are driving away in your car. We just can not allow that to happen.

When I ask most players what their bankroll is, or the total amount that they are willing to lose in a season, most give me a blank stare or say “as little as possible!” If you play, you simply have to have a stated amount that you are comfortable losing and have it in a liquid (checking or savings) account at a bank. Moose and Rocco mostly only accept cash so you should have it ready at hand in the event that things go the wrong way. Trust me when I tell you that there is nothing worse in the world than having to scramble to get the cash to pay off a bookie as I have had to do this myself a time or two over the years. It’s incredibly stressful and most of us already have enough stress in our lives. One other piece of advice is if you get paid out before the end of the season, deposit it in the same bank account and do not immediately spend it. You can always spend it at the end of the season and you may need it to cover a subsequent cold streak later in the season. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

One last point that deserves to be stressed: if you don’t have any money to lose, just do not play. I know that sounds obvious, but the fact is that many players that I know have no business playing in the first place. This is a game for people with means who can afford it, and the least capitalized players are also the most desperate players and they make reckless, desperate plays….and lose, and the consequences can be devastating. It goes without saying that you should not be gambling your mortgage payment each month on lay 110 to win 100 propositions. Your betting should be an investment of capital that you have in the bank that you hope to make a nice (tax free) return on, but if it has a more significant impact on your overall livelihood and well-being if it is wiped out, then I am sorry but you just do not qualify to be a player. Come back and see me when you have some risk capital for this activity. But until then, DO NOT BET!

Most people bet too much per play and don’t even realize it. This is the case because they bet too high of a unit level given their risk profile and number of plays they make over a given time horizon, usually a season.

Let’s go through an example for the football season and see the math that helps us arrive at a sensible unit level per play:

Bankroll: $10K

Number of plays: 10 per week over 16 weeks, or 160 total plays

Assumed worst case win rate: 40%

Drain ratio: Win factor .40 + Loss factor (1-Win factor)*.10 vig= -.26

In order to cap your losses at $10,000 with a Drain Ratio of -.26, you can afford Total Action of $10,000/.26 = $38,461

Therefore, if you can afford $38,461 in total action for the season and put out 160 plays, you should use an average play of $38,461/160, or $240 per play. Most people are shocked to hear this low number, as they usually say “If I had $10 dimes to lose, I would bet a nickel or a dime per play!”, but the numbers don’t lie and you should take heed.

An important note is this should be your average play, not your base unit. Your base unit in this example should probably be $100 and you will be betting and average of 2.4 units per play. Most pick services will have varying levels of attractiveness in their plays, such as a 2* or 3* etc. So, use a base unit to work your action to fit this model. In this model, to keep your average bet at the $240 level, you will most probably want to play $200 and $300 per play, and occasionally a $100 or $400 play mixed in. Another way to look at it is that you will have a “budget” of about $2500 of action per week and can put out 10 plays, so it is up to you to vary the number of units to “fit” your service.

Also, please understand the sensitivity of the average bet to the number of plays and/or the worst case win rate. For instance, if you are more conservative, perhaps you will want to use a lower worst-case win rate of 35%. This will take the Drain Ratio up to -36.5. Based on 160 total plays, you will only be able to afford $27,397 in Total Action over the same 160 plays, taking your average bet down to $171.

In like manner, if you think you will play more often, then it will also have the effect of reducing your average play. With a 35% win rate and double the plays to 320, then the average play goes all the way down to $85. It makes sense that if you play more often, you can lose more often and your bets need to be smaller.

There are a few more points to make. First, you obviously are looking at your risk over the whole season but you should not vary your bets over the course of the season based on how well/poorly you are faring. It flies in the face of risk management to do so, so the plan is to stick to a base unit that will produce your targeted average bet and STICK TO IT no matter what. If you don’t, this plan will not work and you will most likely blow up. Second, because this is a plan for the entire season, it limits your loss to your bank roll over the entire season. It does not account for the timing of the win ratio. For instance, if you bet $200 per play and started out 0-45, your $10k bankroll would be gone and you would be at your stop loss before you had the chance to go on a 64-51 run to finish the season and get some back(based on a 40% win rate). And the opposite can happen too, when you win a lot early and then go deathly cold to end the season. Either way, it is not a fail-proof thing, but at least it gives all players a framework in which to customize their wagering size based on their own view of how much they will play and how badly they could possibly do on a worst-case scenario. My job is to let you see the factors at work here, and clearly no one thinks they will only win at a 40% rate, otherwise they wouldn’t play in the first place. I personally use 40% as my worst-case win ratio, based on that fact that my service historically runs at about 57%, so for them to only win at only 40% is a pretty major divergence from their mean win rate. But I use it as a Doomsday Scenario so I can plan my season accordingly, and if they have a terrible season, I know that I will be stopped out at my bankroll. My point is to show you how your money will last in bad scenarios so that you can think it through before it happens, be mentally prepared to deal with it, and have the cash on hand to pay it.

Eventually, I will try to create an interactive calculator on here for people to use to gauge what average bet they plan to use for a season. But, again, it is up to you (and only you) not to deviate from the plan. Get your units straight before the season starts and stick to them all the way through, no matter what happens. If you start to “double up to catch up” (betting bigger average bets when you are in a cold streak), you will blow up. That is the biggest lesson that I can show out of this whole section.

#2: Thou Shalt Hire A Pick Service
Let’s be honest: anyone who bets thinks that they know a lot about sports, or rather, they think that they know more about sports than the average dude. And we may know our own favorite teams inside and out. But, at the end of the day, we simply have to face the stone cold truth that we really do not know anything truly relevant to the outcome that everyone else doesn’t know. Sure, we have our own opinions and we may occasionally be correct, but in reality we are just guessing and making hunches over and over again, with no real “edge” that is sustainable. And without a sustainable edge, how do we plan to overcome the 10% vigorish over the long haul?

As an example of what I mean, do the following exercise with a friend. Your friend will be “The House”, and he has 10 $1-dollar bills in his stack. You are “The Player”, and you have $9 $1-dollar bills and 10 dimes. Your buddy flips the coin and you try to call it in the air. If you are right, you get a $1. If you are wrong, you pay $1 and a dime. See who runs out of money first…..

If you are a sports gambler, this is what you are doing, over and over again, but the stakes are much higher than my example as most players bet $100 to $1000 at a whack, and those dimes really range from $10 bills to $100 bills on each play. If you know each flip is a 50-50 proposition as it is in my example, than you probably can see why most players lose. If you play Exotics, use quarters in the example instead of dimes. Eventually, the vig will grind you out of your bankroll. It may take a long time if you win a few times in a row or it may happen very quickly, but the reality is that if you have to pay vig on a coin flip, you will lose in the long haul. Period. There is simply no getting around this reality of simple mathematics. If this fact were not true, than sportsbooks and bookies would not exist and would not earn significant profits year after year.

So, given these facts, if you plan to still play, you simply need to find a way to make your odds better than a coin flip. In other words, you need some means (an "edge") to find a winning percentage above 50%. That is why I suggest that you outsource your picks to a Pick Service, also known as a “Tout” or a professional handicapper. These are people whose whole livelihood is based on their ability to pick winners; this is all they do all day. Surely, all things being equal, they stand a better chance of beating the 50% win rate than you can, given their ability to analyze all aspects of a sports contest. They have so much more data and analytical capabilities that you and I simply do not have access to.

But not all pick services are the same, and it demands you to do some diligence on your part, since you are basically putting your hard-earned cash in their hands. I have 4 rules when it comes to Touts:

Rule #1: There is an inverse relationship to a touts credibility and their decibel level. As you probably guessed, some touts are scumbags. As a matter of fact, most are! Most are just trying to get you hooked on their picks and make outlandish claims such as “We were 8-0 last week in the NFL!” And I have noticed that the louder they yell their picks into their recorded message or on the radio or on TV, the more they are just trying to instill false confidence in you to try their service. Many of these boiler room touts will have one recording for half of their callers, and another recording with THE EXACT OPPOSITE PICK for the other half. This way, they always have someone who is happy and will be back to pay them the next week. Only choose a pick service with a verifiable track record and be skeptical about them. As in all things, talk is cheap and these guys can tell you anything you want to hear.

Rule #2: You get what you pay for. I recommend paying for a pick service, as “free picks” from touts, the media, or your buddies that call with “locks” are long-term losing situations. When a pick service gives away their picks, or their 400-Star “Lock of the Week”, think about what they are trying to do. They are trying to get new customers who will eventually pay, so they do the 50-50 thing and will look great to the half who got the winning pick, and they blow out the losers. The winners come back for more and then they do it all over again for a new set of new players the next week. You can imagine how many people they convert if their “Lock of the Week” wins. You probably think they always win like that. But the fact is that you don’t know which half you are in.

Paying for a service should not make you wary, but should actually make you more comfortable with your pick service. The reason is that the good guys in this business don’t have to give away their best picks for free to attract new subscribers. Their published track record speaks for itself and enough people view it as a recurring source of winners to keep them in business year in and year out. Quite simply, they do not have to resort to hype and/or false claims to sell their service. Let the market point you to the good guys.

As for listening to the media or your friends, trust me when I tell you that it is a losing proposition. For the most part, the media are the people responsible for creating the public perception that helps the oddmakers create line for games, and they constantly state the obvious and really have no real inside scoop. In a nutshell, they are really not much more capable of consistently picking winners than you and me. So why would we ever want to invest our money on their picks? Anyone who watches ESPN Gameday or NFL Countdown to make their wagering decisions is never, ever going to win consistently.

Lastly, if you have that friend of yours (and we all have them) who calls you 5 minutes before kickoff and says “Notre Dame laying 3 at home is a lock!” please do yourself a favor and ignore him. As a matter of fact, tell him to not call with his picks until after the games have started. This way, you can still talk amicably about betting the games without you having to deal with the temptation to play his poorly reasoned plays. Want an easy way to get him to stop? Just challenge him “What is your edge?” or “What is your thesis or angle on this one?” Most times you will hear silence, as they are just betting on a hunch, clearly a losing proposition when you flip that coin and lay 110 to win 100. Stay away!


Rule #3: Look for detailed analysis of each pick service’s plays. The legitimate pick services out there are happy to show you examples of their analysis, and the more detail that is provided, the more credible they are. If your pick service is merely some meatball screaming the pick at you without any real basis or backup, they are probably hucksters and you should run far far away. When you think about it, if this is their entire livelihood, and all they did all week was crunch stats and assess angles and power ratings all day, surely they could provide some of that analysis to you if you are paying them for the picks. So, the lesson is that it is a huge red flag if a service just gives you a side and leaves it at that. The legit guys will explain the various angles involved and make you feel a lot more comfortable in playing it, while the illegitimate guys could well be flipping a coin. So, be careful and always be asking your service to “Show You the Edge” before you show them any money.

Rule #4: Just like in investments, when something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. When pick services make outlandish claims of winning over 70% of their plays, they are doing one of two things, neither of them respectable. On one hand, they are just flat out lying, as there is no one out there to police their claims. There is no Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) policing these claims like there are in the investment world. So, they have nothing really to lose by falsifying their track record. On the other hand, their hot track record may actually be true, but over a limited, cherry-picked time horizon. They may have actually gone 7-2 last weekend, but they fail to disclose that they are 34-56 for the season. The former number will sell their product, the latter will not. So, just think through what these people are representing, be skeptical, and never believe claims in excess of 70% win rates. Even the best (legit) handicappers in the world run long-term win rates in the 55-62% range, so any claims above that range are most probably fraudulent. Also, the use of the terms “Guaranteed” and “Lock” are also red flags, as there simply are no guarantees or locks in this business. Just use your brain, and ask other players for referrals to the legit guys (or choose some from my Approved List) before you turnover your cash (their fee) AND your profit and loss (the results they produce using your bankroll). There is obviously a lot at stake so choosing your service is extremely important to get right.

If you are unsure about a service, email me, I will do some due diligence of them for you, and post my findings on the Approved List or “Stay Away List”

#3: Thou Shalt Employ Multiple Bookies
The vast majority of players that I talk to only use one bookie. I strongly suggest that you have more than one bookie at all times as there are many solid reasons for doing so. Perhaps the most important reason is so you can shop your action to whomever has the best line on any given game. You have no idea how overlooked this is and how much money it can save you! While most bookies have the same lines on most games, perhaps 25% of the games have ½ point differentials, and some even over a point! One Super Bowl, thought to be the most efficient oddsmaking game in the world, had a 2 ½ point variation from one bookie to another, due to the region of the country. But you would never know it if you just booked with one guy. It is so very important to shop more than one book for the best line, as that ½ point difference can easily mean the difference in a loser and a push. It has happened to me over and over again….my buddy will call all depressed “Man, I am so bummed that we lost that bet by just a ½ point” and then I just don't have the heart to tell him that I played it at a different book and pushed.

Remember that when you buy the hook (which I never ever suggest), a bookie gets double juice. So, for every $100 play, it is worth $10 (or $5 on an expected value basis). So, if I can find a better line and play it, it is like getting $10 per $100 for free. Why wouldn’t I have multiple books to shop it and pick up $10 every time I succeeded? If you take no other advice away from this site, I beg you to get multiple bookies and shop them. You will thank me when that Push turns into a Winner because you shopped your action.

There is another important reason to have multiple bookies is a very little known online practice called “Player Profiling”. Now, what I am about to suggest occurs is a matter of speculation on my part, my own experiences betting online, and rumors from other players. Player Profiling is usually only done by online sportsbooks and involves the practice of analyzing the individual tendencies that you have as a player based on your track record. It can involve such factors as your geographic location, your penchant for favorites, or your pick service. What I am convinced that they do is use this information about you to their advantage by shading the lines published to you in their favor and hurting your odds of winning significantly.

Let me give you a few examples. Let’s say that you live in Miami and you play Miami every week by routine. Well, they will probably see your home address and figure out pretty quickly that you are not price sensitive and will bet Miami no matter what the line is. So, I think they publish a Miami line only to you (through your player ID) that is 1/2 to a full point worse than that which is offered to “non-Miami” players. There is no law that I know of that makes them have to offer the exact same line to everyone they have in their book, and even if there is, who is going to call them out on it?

Instead of being a Miami player, perhaps you always bet big NFL favorites consistently. I contend that they have the ability to mine the data of all of their players that have this same tendency and shade the lines against them. And the same is true for pick services. I have seen this happen before in my own experiences in that they can pretty easily figure out what pick service that you are playing. I have seen them move lines against me by a full point between the time I enter the bet and then try to confirm it. And they do this because they then subscribe to the same service that I do and then move the lines against me before I can play them at the original lines. They can only do this by player profiling. If you use more than one book, it is a good way to “throw them off” as each book will only see a partial picture of your overall action and it may fall into the random category of play instead of a specific profile. Trust me when I tell you that you do not want to be taken advantage of by being profiled and multiple bookies will help hide your edge from them.

Lastly, there are a couple of other benefits of multiple bookies. One is the ability to have multiple lines of credit. It is always preferable to have a line of credit as opposed to having to pay upfront as most offshore book require. It is a huge pain making deposits these days, so if you can find a local human bookie who will extend credit, use static lines, and isn’t profiling you, they are usually the best set up. If you feel better about an offshore set up, look for discounted juice, deposit bonuses, and other perks for the hassle of paying upfront.

The last benefit is that when you have more than one bookie, you have the ability to play “middles” when the opportunity presents itself. A middle is when the same bet has significantly different lines at different books, or a line that has changed significantly from where a player initially bet it. In a middle, you play both sides on the same bet and hope that the game ends up between the two lines. A Middle player is just risking the vig on one side of the play, in the hopes of hitting the middle and winning both sides of the play, resulting in a 20:1 hit assuming 10% vig. A Middle can also win on a push which is a 10:1 hit. Obviously, a middle player wants to have as wide a spread as possible between the two lines, ideally covering some of the magic numbers of football like 10 and 11, 6 and 7, 3 and 4. Although I haven’t done the math involved (someday I will), I think a common sense rule of thumb is to have at least 2 full points between the two lines to make it worthwhile.

#4: Thou Shalt Display Will Power
Once you have your Money Management plan intact, it is just as important that you do not deviate from that plan. And the only way that you can make that happen is to summon a great deal of will power.

There are three ways to get derailed, and if you start doing any of them at any time during the season, you simply must check yourself and get back to the plan. Otherwise, there is a very high likelihood that you blow up.

Bad Sign #1: Playing without your Edge One of the bad signs is when you start betting on hunches without any edge. If you are doing this, it is time to remember why you bet in the first place. You are betting plays to overcome the odds that are stacked against you. Betting plays without any edge is not accomplishing the goal and will most certainly lead to losses over the long term. If you get the urge to play something outside of your pick service’s plays, do not do so on impulse. Think about if this type of unjustified play is really why you are a gambler in the first place, and most of the time you will quickly realize that it is not and lay off the play. Again, I never said it was easy but being able to say “No!” to yourself is perhaps the most important personality trait a successful sports gambler can have.

Bad Signs #2 and #3: More Active or Bigger Action Another worrisome sign is when you start straying outside of your predetermined limits on size or frequency of your action, and it can get ugly really quickly when you get reckless with both size and frequency simultaneously. If your bankroll, frequency and worst-case win rate all dictate that you should have an average bet of $200 based on our money management formula, and you find yourself putting out a nickel a throw, well you are not sticking to your game plan and will probably blow up. Likewise, even if you are betting within your size limits but are putting out 20 plays a week instead of just 10 like your plan states, you must scale back your frequency; otherwise you risk the absolutely real possibility of blowing up. You need to go on what I call an “Action Diet”. If your plan says that you can afford $40,000 in gross season-long action, then you have an Action Diet of about $2500 per week, based on a 16-week season. I really don’t care how you split up that action and it should really be dictated by your pick service ratings. But find a combination of size and frequency that fits your service and that you are comfortable with. In this example, you could put on 10 plays for $250 each or 5 Nickel plays. Again, do whatever makes you feel comfortable and dovetails well with your service.

One obvious thing that I have noticed in the players that I know is that the lower their will power, the more likely they are to blow up. So, before you start playing, ask yourself if you really do have the will power to be a successful player. If you have any doubts, just don’t play and save yourself an expensive lesson.

#5: Thou Shalt Be A Contrarian
Most sports gamblers that I talk to are amazed when I tell them that Underdogs win more often than Favorites. But it is true. Why is that true? Well, it’s human nature to assume that the status quo will remain the same, and if a team plays well last week, it is easier to assume that they will do the same the following week, especially when the media talking heads barrage the public with this rhetoric all week. Also, it’s human nature to want to back a “winner”. That is why we often have fair weather fans. And the same applies to gambling: people like to bet favorites, and the oddsmakers know this and purposely shade the line higher than the “true line” that the facts suggest.

Bookies and sportsbooks not only make their living off of the vig, but they also feast on the human tendency to bet favorites and the herd mentality that exists. So, if you think like a bookie, instead of the average gambler, and resist the human urge to bet a bunch of chalk, chances are that you will do better than the average meathead.

To give a recent example of how being a contrarian is a smart thing (and profitable), let’s go back to the Tennessee-Florida game at the Swamp in September 2009. Due to the media hype around the grudge between the two schools’ coaches, and line was posted at 30. It takes a true contrarian to stand back and realize that just because there is a grudge between the coaches and Urban Meyer would probably very much like to blow out Tennessee, doesn’t mean that Florida actually is able to do so. Remember, this is the SEC and the talent levels are not over 4 touchdowns different.

But what really got me interested in taking Tennessee was when the non-gamblers kept telling me that they wanted to bet Florida. I have seen this so many times in my life: when the “dumb money” is all on the same side, people who never ever bet regularly are all saying things like “Boy, I’d bet Florida no matter what the line is” or “Florida is going to murder Tennessee”, that’s when I step in and take the other side. As a matter of fact, I took Tennessee with some of my non-gambler buddies, saved the juice, and took great joy in pointing out to them where the ATM machine was when the game wrapped up. Examples like this are few and far between, but I hope you see that the dumb-money crowd is wrong over the long haul. Those huge casinos in Vegas were built because the crowd is wrong, not because they are right. So, when all else is equal, think like a contrarian to the crowd and Take The Points!

One last comment on being a contrarian....I have found that the harder it is to call in a play, the better the play is. Usually, when you call in a "tough-to-play" play, it is some team that is a laughing stock, is a huge dog, and no one on the planet wants to support. In addition, most times this team has had a disastrous last outing, with embarrassing highlights of their ineptitude being played over and over again on ESPN. And then the talking heads all pile on the team. When all of this is happening, that when I start getting interested, as so much can change week-to-week. Just bear in mind, the tougher the play, the better it probably is.

#6: Thou Shalt Not Play Exotics
It should come as no surprise when I tell you that exotics are terrible bets and you should never play them. You can accomplish the exact same thrill and fun simply by playing straight bets and stand much better profitability odds by doing so. Parlays, teasers, reverses…..stay far away from them. They are the devil’s playpen and have ridiculous amounts of juice embedded in them due to the multiplicative effect of coupling 2 Lay-110 to Win-100 plays. You stand very little chance of overcoming the huge vig even if you have the best pick service in the land. Remember that there is a pretty high likelihood that you will lose just playing straight plays, but it is virtually assured that you will not only lose but most probably blow up completely if you get hooked on exotics. Remember that they call them "Teasers" for a very good reason: all teasers look great before you play them.

If you want the absolute best way to overcome the vig in sports gambling then just stick to straight plays exclusively and you will be glad that you did.

#7: Thou Shalt Not “Buy The Hook”
Only losers “buy the hook”, which is parlance for getting an extra half point if you pay double juice. For instance, buying the hook means that instead of playing New England laying 3, you “buy it” down to 2 ½ by laying 120 to win 100. It is tempting to buy the half when it is a 3 point line, but just don’t do it. Bookies have crunched the numbers and figured out that the probability that the game lands on the original line is so low that they will make more on the play when you lose than the exceedingly low chance that it hits the exact original line. If this wasn’t true, then they would not be willing to offer such an option in the first place. In the same vein as exotics, just say “No!” to buying the half and you will come out better in the long haul.

#8: Thou Shalt Not Lose Sight of the Long Term Results
It’s so easy to do….you have a few bad weeks and then all of your discipline goes out the window. But you simply have to understand that you have started the season with a solid money management plan and to change in mid stream can and will be a devastatingly bad move that will certainly move you closer to blowing up.

It is much easier to endure a few bad weeks with a pick service because their track record shows us that they aren't just flipping coins and their methodology has merit and works over the long term. That long term consists of many short terms, some of which have been good weeks and some bad. Just remember that you chose them based on a long-term time horizon of results, so you should judge their current results in the same vein. So, never lose sight of the long term goal and get ready for short term variability in the results. Look, bad weeks are going to happen sooner or later, so don't get all worked up about it. Take it in stride and judge your service over the entirety of a season. If it was really awful, then look for another service next year, but in the meantime, stick to your service through thick and thin, and keep your money management plan intact. If you get to your bankroll limit, shut it down for the year and come back next year. Just do not let a bad streak make you blow up completely.

#9:Thou Shalt Be Methodical and Organized
If you are going to put your best foot forward, you owe it to yourself to being organized and always know what your outstanding action is and what your figure is. I am always shocked by how some players are so unorganized and have no idea how much cash they are down/up or how much action they have on. Some players that I know don’t even write down their action and just take their bookies word for what their figure is!

If this is you, then you need to get your stuff together. One idea is to get a list of all the games each weekend, as many sportsbooks or bookies will provide to you. Use this sheet to assess the lines for each game that you want to play and shop the lines for the games you want to play. It’s a whole lot of information to stay on top of: multiple lines and totals on 50+ college and 16 pro games each weekend can become overwhelming if you aren’t organized. So get organized and do the same routine each week, figure your wins and Losses daily, and always stay on top of your overall situation. It will make you a better player and you won’t make stupid mistakes.

#10: Thou Shalt Not Wager When Under The Influence
I know this is a trite suggestion, but it has burned me in the past, and has really burned some players that I know too. Just don’t do it. Never, I repeat, NEVER BET DRUNK OR HIGH. It is widely known that inebriation in most any form gives us a false sense of confidence and we do stupid things, and it clearly applies to sports gambling. It is so easy to fall into the trap of being talked into a stupid play by your buddies at the sports bar, or you are having a good/bad day, and are trying to give it back/make it worse. Just don’t do it. Will power is perhaps the sports gambler’s must important friend, but it doesn’t apply to just when things are going poorly. Just the same, if you blow what would otherwise be a big (profitable) day by taking Hawaii huge in the super late game when you are three sheets to the wind, it will just kill you long term. Even if you say “well, I still pushed today!” my response will be that you need winning days to offset the inevitable losing days, and if you blow your good days with reckless drunken plays, then you are destined to blow up, no question about it. And you probably should just quit right now. It defeats the whole purpose of playing if you don’t have a gameplan with risk management in place and STICK TO IT, no matter how well you are doing. GUI (Gambling Under the Influence) should be a jailable offense just like DUI. Just don’t do it.www.prudentgambler.com

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